Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana: Is the Final Push of This Cycle Here?
Welcome back, everyone. Today’s discussion dives deep into global liquidity, the Fed’s next moves, and how they could shape Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana in the weeks ahead. The market is at a pivotal moment—one where macro policy, investor psychology, and on-chain data all intersect. Let’s break it down.
The Global Liquidity Index & The Fed’s September Pivot
The Global Liquidity Index has been one of the most reliable indicators this cycle. Every time it trends lower, Bitcoin follows with a correction roughly 75 days later. Right now, it’s on the verge of reversing higher—an inflection point that could determine whether September is a local top or the beginning of a much larger extension.
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The September 17th FOMC meeting looms large, with markets currently pricing in a 75% chance of a Fed rate cut.
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Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech fueled expectations, sparking rallies in both Bitcoin ($16K) and Ethereum (new ATHs since Nov 2021).
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If the Fed cuts too cautiously, liquidity may roll over. If it cuts aggressively, we may see a final surge before the next correction.
I’m personally balanced:
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Holding cash in case September becomes a “sell the news” top.
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Maintaining spot exposure, anticipating the possibility of further upside if liquidity expands.
Macro Signals to Watch
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US Dollar Index (DXY): Currently forming a bear flag. A breakdown would confirm global liquidity expansion and risk asset strength.
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Inflation (Core PCE): Next week’s print is critical. Stubborn inflation limits how aggressive the Fed can be.
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Labor Market & GDP: Beneath the surface, both are weakening. The Fed may not be able to prevent an eventual slowdown, even with cuts.
Bitcoin: False Breakouts, False Breakdowns
This cycle has been brutal for leveraged traders:
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False breakouts → wreck long positions.
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False breakdowns → wreck short positions.
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The pattern has repeated since early 2023, frustrating traders while spot holders quietly benefit.
On-chain and cyclical data suggest we are late in the bull market:
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Bitcoin has spent 273 days in above-average profit territory—between the extremes of 2017 and 2021.
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Long-term holders have realized 3.27M BTC in profit, again between previous cycle highs and lows.
If the 4-year halving cycle plays out again, a local top in September makes sense—front-running the many who expect October.
Ethereum: Back in Price Discovery
Ethereum has reclaimed its crown:
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Trading above its 2021 all-time highs after years of volatility.
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ETF inflows are picking up, even as Bitcoin inflows slow, showing investors are rotating further out on the risk curve.
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The price structure now resembles a blowoff top—rallies with shorter consolidations leading to parabolic moves.
Key levels:
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Could extend between $5,000–$6,000 before a correction.
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ETH/BTC ratio is breaking out, targeting 0.053, which would solidify ETH’s relative dominance.
Whales continue accumulating: corporate treasuries like Bitmine Immersion Tech now hold 1.5M ETH, worth over $7.2B. Until this accumulation trend breaks, ETH likely hasn’t topped.
Solana: The Next Rotation
As Ethereum rallies, Solana looks poised to follow:
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Approaching a breakout above $200, which could send it towards its 2021 highs at $260.
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Spot Solana ETFs expected in October could accelerate this rotation.
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On-chain activity remains strong, and SOL’s risk-reward profile after BTC and ETH remains one of the best in the market.
The Bigger Picture: Debt, Liquidity, and Risk Assets
The U.S. government continues running massive deficits, fueling exponential debt growth. That debt must be monetized—meaning an eventual increase in money supply and inflationary pressure. For investors, that translates into continued upward pressure on:
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The S&P 500
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Fixed-supply assets like Bitcoin
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And high-conviction altcoins like Ethereum and Solana
Conclusion
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Bitcoin: Likely nearing a local top, but with room for a final push.
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Ethereum: In price discovery with whales accumulating—could extend higher before correction.
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Solana: Positioned to benefit from rotation and ETF catalysts.
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Macro: September’s Fed meeting and liquidity data will decide whether this is the final leg or an extended cycle.
Markets are euphoric, but not overheated—yet. Keep a close eye on liquidity, inflation, and sentiment. The final innings of a bull cycle are often the most rewarding—but also the most dangerous.
Crypto Rich
Welcome to CryptoRich.io! ($RICH) I’m Crypto Rich, and I created this platform to share my passion for cryptocurrency and blockchain technology with the world. Over the years, I’ve navigated the highs and lows of the crypto market, learned valuable lessons, and developed strategies that have helped me thrive in this ever-changing space. My goal is to empower you to do the same.
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